.
Tim Duncan, as previously stated, was taken first in 1997 by the Spurs, who had the good fortune of having another franchise center, David Robinson, already on their roster. Duncan had played all four years of college ball at Wake Forest, and entered the NBA as an almost finished product. He was expected to develop into a perennial all-star, and he has delivered on those expectations, leading the Spurs to championship glory in 1999, 2003, 2005, and 2006. Duncan was named MVP of the finals on 3 out of 4 occasions, a feat matched only by Magic Johnson and Shaquille O’Neal, and exceeded by 6-time MVP Michael Jordan. Tim Duncan is undoubtedly a future Hall-of-Famer.
Michael Olowokandi, chosen by the Clippers in 1998, has not been nearly as successful. Due to his relative lack of experience playing organized ball, many teams believed Olowokandi had a great deal of potential to improve; this was despite the fact that he was drafted as at the age of 23 and had played 3 years at the University of Pacific. In the defense of the Clippers’ judgement, Olowokandi DID improve significantly in each of his 3 years playing college ball, and there were already two very successful African-born centers in the NBA at that time, in Hakeem Olajuwon and Dikembe Mutombo. There was also a clear lack of talent that could play the pivot in the 1998 draft, as the next centers taken after Olowokandi were Raef LaFrentz, Michael Doleac, and Keon Clark.
In 2002,
Yao Ming was chosen 1st overall by the
Houston Rockets. Yao was thought to have a lot of potential, but many experts did not envision Yao becoming a dominant force. Yao entered the league at the age of 22, similar in age to a 4-year college player. He has improved in each of his seasons in the league, especially offensively. Yao has become a dominant offensive player this season, finishing the 2006-07 season averaging 25.0 PPG. The knocks on Yao are that he is not a dominant defensive presence, and he has put up big numbers playing against many players who aren’t considered “true” centers, such as
Pau Gasol, Amare Stoudamire, and
Mehmet Okur. Yao has not faced the kind of competition that pivots of the 1980’s and 90’s had to contend with.
Dwight Howard was taken by Orlando with the 1st choice in 2004. The Magic chose him rather than Emeka Okafor, and have looked very wise in making that choice, as Howard made the All-Star team this year, in his 3rd season. He is probably the easiest of these players to compare to Oden, as they both entered the draft as teens, and have similar builds, with Oden being slightly bigger and taller. I view Howard as more athletic and a better rebounder than Oden, but Oden will be the better defender and will probably be a similar type of offensive player, at least initially, that Howard is now. Howard’s high school numbers were actually superior to Oden’s, though I can’t help but assume that it was against inferior competition.
In the 2005 draft, Andrew Bogut was taken with the 1st selection by the
Milwaukee Bucks. The 2005 draft was relatively weak, and Bogut was considered to be the clear choice for #1 pick. Some experts, including those at www.nbadraft.net, compared Bogut’s game to that of
Vlade Divac, and it’s a comparison that appears to have some merit. Bogut’s numbers have yet to match up to Vlade’s in his prime, but he improved his numbers across the board this season, and will probably have a prime that closely mirrors Divac’s, as they have similar skill sets.
What does all this mean for Greg Oden’s future? The centers who entered the NBA with similar fanfare,
Patrick Ewing, Shaquille O’Neal, and Tim Duncan, have all delivered on their promise. The player who most resembles Oden as far as experience and athleticism, Dwight Howard, has already become a very good NBA player at 21 years of age. Though there is no player in NBA history who I can clearly parallel Oden with, I view him as a player who should bring similar skills to the table that 2-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year
Alonzo Mourning possessed in his prime. Oden is bigger and taller than Mourning, and should provide dominant defense, as well as good, though not dominant, offense when he fully matures as a player. Oden is almost certainly a future All-Star, and will probably be taken with the 1st overall selection. I guarantee that Greg Oden will not be the second coming of Michael Olowokandi, but let’s not put him in the Hall of Fame quite yet.
Greg Oden is, almost inarguably, going to be the 1st pick in the 2007 NBA draft. The question that bears answering is, what kind of player will Oden eventually become? Part of the reason that today's draft is so intriguing is that Oden is viewed as a can’t-miss superstar. Other drafts I can recall that had similar intrigue would be 1992, when Shaq was drafted, 1997, when Tim Duncan was selected, and 2003, when LeBron James went 1st overall. Shaq, Duncan, and LeBron were considered franchise players coming out, and have proved to be just that.