Tomorrow's draft provides the
Portland Trailblazers the opportunity and the hard task of deciding between the franchise center Greg Oden and the unlimited potential of
Kevin Durant. To help understand what Portland is thinking about when making this decision, you only need to look at past drafts and see the results other teams have faced in the same decision.
In the last 21 years the team with the first pick has improved their record the very next year 17 out of 21 times, experiencing an average of 15 more. The best examples of teams that experienced great success after having the first round pick of the draft have been Cleveland, 18 wins (
Lebron James, 2003), San Antonio, 36 wins (Tim Duncan, 1997), Orlando, 20 wins (
Shaquille O'Neal, 1992), and San Antonio, 35 wins (David Robinson, 1987).
The position selected most frequently as top picks were post players, either a power forward center. In the last 21 years, a post player was selected 18 times. This trend shows the importance of a franchise big man. In certain cases there have been teams that have taken a guard or small forward with the first pick, however for the most part the center and power forward positions have dominated.
There have been cases where a team has selected a post player with the first pick and subsequently missed the opportunity to select a future Hall of Fame player. The year that stands out the most is the draft of 1984. The
Houston Rockets selected Hakeem Olajuwon with the first pick. Yes, he still went on to be Hall of Famer with two championship titles, but they missed the opportunity to select Michael Jordan.
The Portland Trailblazers only have to look to the recent future if they want guidance with their selection in this year's draft. Kevin Durant has unlimited potential and the ability to be a great scorer at the next level, but Greg Oden has the ability to be a franchise center in the league for 15 years. The opportunity to find a player like this does not come along every year and they should use these examples to help guide them with their choice. Greg Oden could be the next Tim Duncan, Shaquille O'Neal, or David Robinson. This should be enough to show them that a franchise post player is the way to go with the top pick in the 2007 NBA draft.
The first pick in the NBA draft gives one lucky team the opportunity to select the best player available or best fit for their needs. This position is both high risk and high reward. The past 20 years of the NBA draft have given examples of how teams have used this opportunity to improve their franchise or set them back many years in the development of their team.